Three Weeks Off?
Dave takes a look at our chance of progressing to the quarter
finals of the Buddies National Cup. And it's not good.
Get your thinking caps on. Doctor Dave - our resident statistician and
mathmatical genius - has taken a detailed look at the Buddies National
League standings and has calculated the permutations of results needed
for Hornets to qualify for the latter stages. The two best third place
teams will make the cut and they will be determined by 'points ratio' -
the ratio of points scored against points conceded.
Central
Current table
Huddersfield 10 points and a ratio of 3.679
Oldham
4 points and a ratio of 1.650
Batley
4 points and a ratio of 1.010
Hornets
4 points and a ratio of 0.743
Dewsbury 4 points and a ratio
of 0.606
Hunslet 0
points and a ratio of 0.281
Remaining fixtures:
Hornets v Hunslet
Oldham v Batley
Probable winners: Hornets, Oldham
There's no point in guessing at victory margins, so keep the points
ratios as
is.
Probable table
Huddersfield 10 points and a ratio of 3.679
Oldham 6 points and
a ratio of 1.650
Hornets 6 points and a ratio of
0.743
Batley 4 points and a ratio
of 1.010
Dewsbury 4 points and a ratio of
0.606
Hunslet 0 points and a ratio of
0.281
West
Current table
Leigh 6 points and a ratio
of 2.423
Barrow 6 points and a ratio of 2.276
Whitehaven 6 points and a ratio of 1.764
Workington 4 points and a ratio of 0.950
Chorley 2 points and a ratio of
0.497
Swinton 0 points and a ratio of 0.200
Remaining fixtures:
Barrow v Leigh
Swinton v Whitehaven
Chorley v Workington
Probable winners: Leigh, Whitehaven, Workington
Probable table
Leigh 8 points and a ratio
of 2.423
Whitehaven 8 points and a ratio of 1.764
Barrow 6 points and a ratio of
2.276
Workington 6 points and a ratio of 0.950
Chorley 2 points and a ratio of
0.497
Swinton 0 points and a ratio of
0.200
The 3rd placed team in this group will definitely have a better record
than
us.
East
Current table
Doncaster 8 points and a ratio of 4.130
Hull KR 8 points and a ratio of
2.807
Featherstone 4 points and a ratio of 1.489
Sheffield 4 points and a ratio of 1.009
Keighley 0 points and a ratio
of 0.351
Gateshead 0 points and a ratio of 0.133
Remaining fixtures:
Hull KR v Doncaster
Sheffield v Featherstone
Gateshead v Keighley
Probable winners: Hull KR, Sheffield, Keighley
Probable table
Hull KR 10 points and a ratio of
2.807
Doncaster 8 points and a ratio of 4.130
Sheffield 6 points and a ratio of 1.009
Featherstone 4 points and a ratio of 1.489
Keighley 2 points and a ratio of
0.351
Gateshead 0 points and a ratio of
0.133
The Prognosis
We need Sheffield to narrowly beat Featherstone - then Sheffield will
finish 3rd with a points ratio of about 1. For us to have a better points
ratio than them, we would need to beat Hunslet about 20-0. If Fev win,
then they will finish 3rd with a points ratio of at least 1.5 - in order
for us to have a better points ratio than them, we would need to beat Hunslet
about 56-0.
Basically, if Sheffield win, then we're in with a shout. But if Fev
win then we're out.
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